Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don identifies which pitchers aren’t getting the best ADP they deserve.
Pitchers being drafted too low
Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers (SP12 ADP vs. my SP3)
deGrom hasn’t reached 100.0 innings pitched since 2019 and is 36 years old, so he carries obvious risk. After continuously missing time with arm troubles, deGrom finally underwent (a second) Tommy John surgery in June 2023. His velocity was a bit down after returning late last season, but the results remained dominant; deGrom’s 29.5 K-BB% and 33.1% CSW would have comfortably led the league. That came in a tiny sample, but deGrom figures to be fully recovered even more so in 2025.
Just like Chris Sale last season, deGrom is a former ace who’s older but coming off his first normal offseason in years. deGrom owns a 2.07 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and a 30.5 K-BB% since 2018, which all lead MLB starters by a wide margin. And his arm might be healthier now than during a big stretch of that span. deGrom can still make a major impact on your ratios even if he’s limited to 100 innings, and he’s the clear favorite to win the Cy Young if he reaches 175.
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deGrom is finally healthy yet isn’t being drafted as a top-10 starter in chof360 leagues, presenting a major opportunity for fantasy managers.
Spencer Schwellenbach, SP, Atlanta Braves (SP24 ADP vs. my SP15)
Schwellenbach was a second-round draft pick, but he’s pitched like a top prospect since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2022. He experienced a big jump in innings last year, but Schwellenbach was especially impressive over the second half, when he posted a 2.73 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP with a 23.3 K-BB% that would’ve ranked fifth on the season. Schwellenbach offers six different pitches and owned a Chase% and BB% in the top five percentiles last season.
Schwellenbach will also benefit from pitching for the Braves for several reasons; Atlanta starters recorded 29% more wins than Detroit’s SPs last season despite both staffs finishing with similar ERAs (3.58 vs. 3.69). The Braves offense comically underperformed and/or got injured last season, so run support should be even greater.
Schwellenbach is the SP24 in chof360 drafts, but he’s a top-15 starter on my board.
Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Baltimore Orioles (SP31 ADP vs. my SP17)
Rodriguez missed the final two months of last season with a right lat strain, but he was completely recovered by November and enters spring without any restrictions. Rodriguez is a former top pitching prospect who owns the second-best K-BB% (31.9) across the minors over the last four years. His K-BB% (19.1) in the majors last season would’ve ranked top-15 among qualified starters, and his CSW (29.6%) would’ve been top 10. Rodriguez also sported the fifth-highest fastball miss rate, yet hitters had an unlucky .373 BABIP against the pitch in 2024. With some slight changes to optimize the 25-year-old’s elite arsenal, Rodriguez can take a step forward and become a true ace in 2025.
Joe Ryan, SP, Minnesota Twins (SP35 ADP vs. my SP19)
We are getting a huge injury discount on Ryan in drafts. He was having a dominant season last year before suffering a shoulder strain in early August that sidelined him for the rest of the year. But Ryan recovered shortly thereafter and experienced a normal offseason that included several bullpen sessions. Ryan is prone to allowing homers, but he would’ve been one of just five starters to finish with a WHIP under 1.00 had he qualified last season. Ryan’s 3.28 SIERA and K-BB% (23.0) both would’ve ranked top five as well. Meanwhile, THE BAT projects Ryan to finish top 10 in K-BB% and WHIP among all starters in 2025. Ryan says he's 100% and looks poised for a career year if health cooperates.
Ryan’s reward looks worth the risk in chof360 drafts, where his ADP (124.1) is 30+ picks lower than in the NFBC.
Jared Jones, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (SP45 ADP vs. my SP32)
Jones had a highly impressive rookie campaign, posting a K-BB% (18.5) that would’ve ranked top 20 among qualified starters and a CSW (29.2%) that would’ve been top 10. Jones’ ADP would surely be higher if not for fading a bit in the second half, but his peripherals remained plenty strong throughout. He’ll continue to benefit from pitching in a home park that’s among the best in suppressing homers (-16% over the last three seasons), but Jones was especially unlucky on the road last year; he posted a 5.81 ERA away from home last season despite seeing his K-BB% jump nearly three points. Jones’ road xFIP was 3.47, and his 17.5 HR/FB% should regress in 2025. Jones could use a reliable third pitch, and he’s been working on adding a two-seam fastball during the offseason.
Jones’ profile offers massive upside at his modest ADP.
Ryan Walker, RP, San Francisco Giants (RP13 ADP vs. my RP9)
Walker doesn’t have a long track record closing games, and a Camilo Doval bounce back is possible, but he’s an RP to target in fantasy drafts. Walker dominated before and after taking over ninth-inning duties last season, and manager Bob Melvin has already named him San Francisco’s closer for 2025. Walker finished top 10 among relievers in SIERA (2.45), WHIP (0.85!), K-BB% (26.3) and CSW (33.5%) last season. He posted the second-highest rate among all pitchers in getting to two-strike counts.
Walker’s ridiculous slider helps neutralize lefties and had the most horizontal break in baseball last year. He’ll continue to benefit pitching in Oracle Park, which is one of baseball’s best pitcher’s parks. Emmanuel Clase, who has a chof360 ADP of 37.7, struck out 66 batters last year. Walker, who has a 105.1 ADP and plays for a team projected to win more games than the Guardians this season, fanned 99.
Walker shouldn’t be going behind Robert Suárez in fantasy drafts.
One pitcher being drafted too high
Max Fried, SP, New York Yankees (SP21 ADP vs. my SP31)
Fried is a solid pitcher who’s being drafted like a borderline elite one despite now moving to Yankee Stadium. The overall Park Factors appear neutral when comparing Atlanta and New York, but some differences could affect Fried; Yankee Stadium has boosted home runs an AL-high 19% over the last three seasons. Moreover, Yankee Stadium has increased walks an MLB-high 10%, and Fried will be leaving a park in Atlanta that helped bump strikeouts by 9% (the third most in MLB).
Fried’s 15.3 K-BB% ranked 32nd among 58 qualified starters last season, sandwiched between MacKenzie Gore and Brady Singer. His CSW was in between Charlie Morton and Kutter Crawford. Fried had as many strikeouts as Mitch Keller and fewer Ks than Tyler Glasnow, who pitched 40 fewer innings.
The 31-year-old Fried signed a massive offseason contract to join New York, and fantasy managers are also paying up while drafting him as a near top 20 starter.
